Election 2024: None of our polls has shown runoff – Global InfoAnalytics
The Executive Director and Head of Global Research at Global InfoAnalytics, Musah Dankwah, has stated that none of their polls indicate the likelihood of a runoff in the upcoming December 7 general elections.
According to him, there are no significant differences between the field polls and the telephone polls regarding overall voting intentions.
“None of the polls so far has shown a runoff, whether in the field survey or the telephone survey,” he said.
Speaking on JoyNews’ AM Show on Friday, October 25, Mr Dankwah explained that their polls consistently project results above the required threshold for a one-touch victory in the December 7 elections.
He added that a close examination of the polls reveals why they are not predicting a neck-and-neck race, stating that if 25 per cent of those who voted for President Akufo-Addo in the 2020 elections now intend to vote for former President John Mahama, that represents a substantial shift.
“If it has to be neck-and-neck, then first-time voters would need to swing heavily toward Bawumia to compensate for the losses,” he said.
However, Mr Dankwah stated that first-time voters will not play a significant role in the upcoming elections.
He stressed that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, cannot afford to lose 25 per cent of the party’s previous voters and expect to bridge the gap with first-time voters, as their numbers are not large enough to make a decisive impact.
He said that even among first-time voters, both Mahama and Bawumia share support, meaning neither has a clear advantage. However, Bawumia enjoys a slight lead in this group.
“We asked people – first-time voters and those who did not vote even though they were able to vote the last time. When you look at the first-time voters on their own, Bawumia has a slight edge, about 10% point over Mahama in the polls we’re doing.
“But if you bring people together-those who didn’t vote last time but want to vote now which includes older people and first-time voters, Bawumia’s lead then shrinks to nothing,” he added.
